Why the price of lemons soared in Mexico

Published January 17th, 2022

The price of lemons in Mexico soared more than 150% in the last year. And this, as expected, triggered a tsunami of comments, criticisms, memes, reactions, and graphics of all kinds on social networks.

Lovers of taquitos, tostadas, guacamole, or tequila know how important it is to accompany their dish or drink with this citric juice, essential in Mexican gastronomy; but the uncontrolled increase in its price affects households in the country and also millions of businesses, stalls, and restaurants that purchase lime for their preparations.

According to the Federal Consumer Protection Agency (Profeco), the Colima variety is sold in Mexico City at a staggering price of up to 79.90 pesos per kilo, while the Persian variety reached 69 pesos per kilo in some supermarkets.

However, the increase is not only evident in the capital city. The figures for the country as a whole are also outrageous. This January, Colima lemons cost, on average in Mexico, 63.97 pesos per kilo, while Persian lemons cost 46.46 pesos. These are very high costs, especially if we compare them with those of a year ago, when, for the same amount of Colima lemons, we paid only 16.58 pesos per kilo on average, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

But why such a drastic increase, and what factors caused the increase?

The increase is mainly due to the drop in production. Already in December 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the federal government warned that in November the production of this fruit fell by 4%.

“It means 12 thousand 280 tons less compared to the previous month of the same year, which is a factor for the increase in the price of citrus,” read the publication of the “National Consumer Price Index” (INPC).

Specifically, they explained that in Michoacán, the main producer of lemons in Mexico, the harvest was reduced by almost half, 48.2% less, the equivalent of 66,166 tons. This was largely due to weather conditions, which severely damaged crops.

“Seeded lemons continue to be affected by weather changes (cold fronts), both in their development cycle and in their production volumes, which reflects a lower influx of the crop in the domestic market,” indicated the federal agency in its “Daily Price Monitoring of the Primary Sector”, at the end of December.

In addition, in another document, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development explained that recently a famous brewery in Mexico launched a new beverage containing lime. This translated “into increased demand” for the citrus fruit.

“In the final stretch of the year, harvest yields are below those achieved in the same period of the previous year, which conditions the volume available for external sale. Recently, one of the main beer producers in Mexico launched a line of carbonated water flavored with lemon juice, which determines a greater domestic demand for citrus for the production of the beverage,” he added.

Michoacán, Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Colima are the main lemon-producing states in Mexico, accounting for 28%, 27.2%, 10.3%, and 9.35% of national production, respectively.

The bad news is that these states will still be hit by cold fronts, so weather conditions will be unfavorable. Added to this is the fact that February and March are the worst months for lemon production, known as the “seasonality effect”. Thus, it seems that, for the time being, the price of lemons will resist going down.