How can we predict what will happen next with the Mexican peso?

Published July 7, 2023

On Wednesday, we saw the Mexican Peso punch below 17 for the first time in eight years, and early on Thursday, a sudden weakening of 2%.

It is said that trying to predict future currency exchange rates is a fool’s game, and in my 25 years of international business experience, I have witnessed countless fools attempt it. Predicting forward foreign exchange (FX) rates is never straightforward.

The most logical financial rationale for a given currency’s trajectory can turn out to be completely wrong based on global political or macroeconomic developments that have little to do specifically with that country. However, there are predictable factors that go into currency movements that can be analyzed and followed.

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