The Mexican peso could weaken to MX$17.92 per US$1.00 in 2H26 as USMCA annual reviews, protectionist tariff risks, and a narrowing 275-basis-point interest rate differential between Banxico and the US Federal Reserve weigh on investor sentiment. Despite these headwinds, the currency’s outlook remains supported by fiscal consolidation, a modest 1.0%–1.2% GDP growth forecast, and the resilience of the US economy, which accounts for more than 80% of Mexico’s exports.

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